Is Saginaw vulnerable?

The champs need to put Clarkston scare behind them

13 March 2008

greatlakeshoops.com

How will the Trojans of Saginaw respond?

Sports fans have seen this scenario play out so many times: the prohibitive favorite runs into a team playing a little above its head and ALMOST loses before regrouping and destroying every team in its path to the title--or not.

This little scenario tests a couple of theories about winning: a.) The best teams, especially teams on long winning streaks, need to lose (or nearly lose in this case) to bring them back down to earth AND b.) Close games like the double-overtime thriller between Saginaw and Clarkston on Tuesday night have the effect of making a team question its own ability ("maybe we aren't that good after all?")

In Saginaw's case, I firmly believe the former will be the case. These Trojans are too talented and, better yet, experienced in the postseason to have any sort of letdown now that they have made it to the Breslin Center.

That the Trojans know all too well that they aren't invincible cannot hurt their chances of winning two in East Lansing this weekend.

And let's not forget about their biggest advantage: coaching. Lou Dawkins, one of the top coaches in Michigan, shows confidence in his players and they, in turn, have the utmost confidence in the team.

Man-for-man, no team in the state should be able to play to within 10 points of Saginaw. Now that someone has, and recently, the Trojans have a timely reminder of what it takes to beat the best.

They must prepare for a tough East Lansing squad in the semifinals that is much better than their record indicates. These Trojans are commanded by another one of the state's best (and least heralded) coaches, Doug Fleming. The veteran coach has helped to write one of the best Cinderella stories in recent memory in class A.

Gone are the Hollenbeck twins and Gerald Busby, but Fleming and his top player, Charlie Woods (right), returned to a team chock-full of savvy role players tailor-made for a run just like this one.

Woods, for his part, has been one of the state of Michigan's most improved players. The bouncy small forward has an all-around game that he didn't feature last season. Woods recently committed to the University of Denver, but do not be surprised if he catches another eye or two this weekend. On any given night, Woods is capable of a triple-double.

If he get the Brandon Pokley treatment, Woods--a pretty darn good 3-point shooter in his own right--could go for 30.

East Lansing cannot make the mistake of paying too much attention to MSU-bound Draymond Green on Friday. Stopping Green usually has the effect of starting Courtney Washington, Daniel West or Mike Green. Saginaw is a team in every sense of the word, so Coach Fleming must trust that his players can handle their assignments.

Prediction: Saginaw over East Lansing by 12

Tell-tale sign: The score - low scoring game favors East Lansing

Matchup to watch: Charlie Woods vs. Draymond Green

Player to watch: Courtney Washington, Saginaw